Oct 29, 2025-Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate to 2.25%
Rate Cut Decision and Rationale
The Bank of Canada (BoC) today announced it is reducing its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The decision was driven by the ongoing weakness in the economy and the expectation that inflation will remain close to the 2% target.
Economic Outlook
Global Economy: The global economy is expected to slow from 3.25% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027, primarily due to trade tensions dampening investment.
Canadian Contraction: Canada's economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, largely due to falling exports and weak business investment amid heightened trade uncertainty. Sectors like autos, steel, and lumber have been severely affected.
GDP and Capacity: The Bank projects Canadian GDP growth to be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, picking up gradually thereafter. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist.
Labour Market: The labour market remains soft. Job gains have been weak, and the unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September.
Inflation
Current Inflation: CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, and core inflation measures are currently sticky around 3%.
Inflation Outlook: The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the coming months, with CPI inflation projected to remain near the 2% target over the forecast horizon.
Policy Conclusion
The Governing Council believes the current policy rate is at the right level to help the economy through its period of structural adjustment while maintaining price stability. The Bank remains focused on managing the difficult economic transition caused by trade conflict.
加拿大银行（Bank of Canada）宣布将隔夜利率目标下调 25 个基点至 2.25%。此次降息是因为经济持续疲软，且预计通胀将保持在 2% 的目标附近。
全球和加拿大经济预测
不确定性： 由于美国贸易政策仍不可预测，本次预测存在比平时更大的风险。
全球放缓： 全球经济增长预计将从 2025 年的 3.25% 放缓至 2026 年和 2027 年的约 3%，主要受贸易紧张局势抑制投资的影响。
加拿大经济疲软： 加拿大第二季度经济收缩 1.6%，主要原因是出口下降和商业投资疲软，特别是在汽车、钢铁、铝和木材等受贸易影响的行业。
GDP 预测： 预计加拿大 GDP 将在 2025 年增长 1.2%，2026 年增长 1.1%，并在 2027 年逐渐回升至 1.6%。经济中的过剩产能预计将持续存在。
劳动力市场和通货膨胀
劳动力市场疲软： 尽管 9 月份就业有所增加，但整体劳动力市场仍然疲软，失业率维持在 7.1%，工资增长放缓。
通货膨胀： 9 月 CPI 通胀率为 2.4%，核心通胀指标仍徘徊在 3% 左右。但央行预计未来几个月通胀压力将缓解，并在预测期内保持在 2% 目标附近。
政策立场
央行认为目前的政策利率水平是合适的，有助于在结构性调整期间保持通胀接近 2%。央行强调，贸易冲突造成的结构性损害限制了货币政策提升需求的力度，但其核心重点是维护物价稳定。